Indonesia Macro Update - Inflation 02 Sep 2026
KBVS MACRO UPDATE
Friday, 2 October 2026
Food Prices Reverse Higher Amid El Niño Supply Pressures
Indonesia’s headline inflation accelerated to 0.30% MoM in Sep ’26 (Cons: 0.33%, KBVS: 0.33%, Prev: 0.21%), bringing annual inflation to 3.28% YoY (Cons: 3.30%, KBVS: 3.30%, Prev: 3.19%). The increase was mainly driven by the Food, Beverages & Tobacco group (+0.88% MoM).
Meanwhile, core inflation eased to 2.84% YoY (Cons: 2.90%, KBVS: 2.92%, Prev: 2.92%), indicating contained underlying pressures. Looking ahead, persistent El Niño-related food pressures into early 2027 could keep headline inflation elevated, while Rupiah stability and external conditions remain key considerations for BI’s policy stance.
Regards,
Khairunnisa N Syahfiraputri & Kesa Mutia Dara – KBVS Research Team