Indonesia Macro Update - Trade Balance 01 Sep 2026
KBVS MACRO UPDATE
Tuesday, 1 September 2026
Trade Surplus Rebounds as Import Growth Moderates
Indonesia recorded a trade surplus of USD0.13 bn (Cons: USD0.00 bn, KBVS: -USD0.35 bn, Prev: -USD0.45 bn) in Jul '26 as export growth recorded 6.05% YoY (Cons: 3.10% YoY, KBVS: -3.05% YoY, Prev: 8.84% YoY), supported by strong non-oil and gas shipments of mineral fuels, iron and steel, nickel, and palm oil.
Meanwhile, total import growth moderated to 27.02% YoY (Cons: 23.40% YoY, KBVS: 17.80% YoY, Prev: 34.27% YoY). While elevated oil and gas purchases kept overall import levels high, the broader growth pace was contained by contractions in key non-oil lines, including cereals, organic chemicals, iron and steel, and electrical machinery.
Looking ahead, improving demand from key trading partners should support the trade balance, escalating geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz risk heightening shipping costs and supply chain disruptions.
Regards,
Khairunnisa N Syahfiraputri, Kesa Mutia Dara - KBVS Research Team