Indonesia Macro Update - Trade Balance 04 Aug 2026
KBVS MACRO UPDATE
Tuesday, 4 August 2026
Export Recovery Narrows Trade Deficit
Indonesia's trade deficit narrowed more than expected to -USD0.45 bn (Cons: -USD0.79 bn, KBVS: USD1.85 bn, Prev: -USD1.61 bn) in Jul '26 as exports rebounded strongly, although higher imports prevented a return to surplus. Export growth was supported by higher shipments of mineral fuels, nickel products, and palm oil amid improving demand from Indonesia's key trading partners, while the higher imports were primarily driven by oil and gas purchases, leaving the overall trade balance in deficit despite a solid non-oil and gas surplus.
Looking ahead, we expect the trade balance to gradually improve as export momentum strengthens, although uncertainty surrounding US tariff policies and the implementation of Indonesia's DSI export mechanism could weigh on coal exports and keep external sector performance volatile.
Regards,
Khairunnisa N Syahfiraputri & Anggun Rahmadani – KBVS Research Team