ITMG - Volumes Set to Carry 2H26 Earnings

KBVS Update
Monday, 31 August 2026

ITMG – Volumes Set to Carry 2H26 Earnings
(Maintain BUY; TP at IDR29,300)

■ ITMG delivered a resilient 1H26 result, with revenue increasing +8.8% YoY to USD1.0 bn and net profit rising +16.5% YoY to USD109.5 mn, representing 48.1% and 49.2% of our FY26F forecasts, respectively.

■ Production recovered +13.0% QoQ to 5.3Mt in 2Q26, supported by better weather conditions, while ASP rose +4.2% QoQ to USD82.7/tonne. However, EBITDA declined -3.5% QoQ to USD89 mn as higher fuel expenses and DMO allocation affected profitability.

■ We expect a stronger 2H26 volume profile, underpinned by drier weather and the 23.0 Mt RKAB allocation. Thus, we forecast FY26F revenue of USD2.08 bn (+10.5% YoY), EBITDA of USD383.6 mn (+11.8% YoY), and net profit of USD222.6 mn (+16.6% YoY).

■ Maintain BUY with TP of IDR29,300/share, implying +12.4% upside and 8.2x FY26F P/E.

Regards,
Adolf R B Setiadi– KBVS Research Team