BBNI - FY23 earnings inline vs street, above ‘23F KBVS

KBVS Update
Monday, 29 Jan 2024

BBNI: FY23 Earnings Inline vs Street yet Above Ours
(Maintain BUY; TP: IDR5,750)

•    BBNI’s FY23 earnings grew 14.2% yoy to IDR20.9 tn, mainly driven by a sharp drop in provisions (20.1% yoy). In all, FY23 earnings came in-line with consensus while beating our ‘23F at a run rate of 99% and 103%.  

•    Loan grew by 7.6% yoy, arrives within management expectation, driven by lower risk segments with the highest growth recorded from consumer (personal loan) by 17.4% yoy followed by corporate private segment (+14.3% yoy). Third party funds grew by 5.4% yoy (above industry growth at 3.8% yoy). On quarterly basis, TPF grew higher at 8.4% qoq, with CASA grew by 12.6% qoq.

•    Overall key performance metrics showed stable figures, with NPL improving 70bps yoy to 2.1%. NIM at 4.60% was arrived within management ‘23F expectation. Likewise, for CoC which improves by 50bps to 1.4% (‘23F guidance at below 1.5%).

•    ‘24F loan growth range guidance of 9-11% is achievable, in our view. Performance on earnings growth possibly to remain intact backed by stable NII, manageable cost to income and continuing low provisioning figure. We also expect steady soft cost of funds as a result of previous adjustment, coupled with carefully selected loan yield repricing will overall underpin ‘24F NIM to arrive within FY23 range.

•    We will revisit our model as BBNI’s share price rally of +12.6% since our last call on Nov ‘23 has put limited upside to our TP. Maintain BUY with GGM TP of IDR5,750 pegged at 1.3x ‘24F P/B while its currently trading at 1.2x ‘24F P/B, or below its +1SD historical mean.

Regards,
Akhmad Nurcahyadi - KBVS Research