BSDE - Higher than expected marketing sales

KBVS Update
Friday, February 2, 2024

BSDE: Higher than expected marketing sales

Consistent marketing sales growth since 2019 (5-year CAGR of 8.8%). BSDE’s booked IDR2.75 tn of marketing sales in 4Q23 (+31.7% yoy/+40.4% qoq) resulting a IDR9.5 tn of marketing sales in FY23 (+7.9% yoy), surpassing it’s target of IDR8.8 tn for FY23. The strong growth in 4Q23 is due to strong sales to JV company (land in Jatisampurna, near Cibubur/ JV with ASII IJ), which contributed to IDR1.87 tn of marketing sales.  However, the residential segment experienced a decline in sales, reaching IDR 542 bn (-56.5% yoy/- 62.6% qoq) due to the absence of product launches in 4Q23.

Commercial and JV land plot segment contributed the growth in 2023. For FY23, the residential segment contributed IDR 5.0 trillion, reflecting a marginal decrease of 2.1% yoy and constituting 53% of the total marketing sales. The commercial segment demonstrated robust performance, contributing IDR 2.62 tn (+25.9% yoy), representing a 28% share of the total marketing sales. The remaining sales were derived from JV land plot transactions, totalling IDR 1.87 tn (16.6% yoy).

Expect marketing sales to reach IDR 9.65 t in 2024 (+1.6% yoy) due to high base. BSDE aims to maintain marketing sales at IDR9.5 tn in 2024, considering the elevated base achieved in 2023. Similarly, we expect marketing sales to grow by 1.6% yoy, assuming 7% growth in the residential &shophouse segment, a slight decline on land plot sales, and 20% decline in JV-landplot sales to IDR1.5 tn.

We reiterate BUY on BSDE with higher target price of IDR1,545 using DCF-based TP (WACC: 11.3%; LTG: 3%), which implied to 0.8x ‘24F PB and 75.0% discount to ‘24F RNAV.

Regards,
Benyamin Mikael, KBVS Research Team