EXCL - Banking on convergence

KBVS Update
Thursday, 23 November 2023

EXCL : Banking on convergence
(Maintain BUY; TP:IDR2,950)

EXCL’s 9M23 results beat our forecasts with revenue and earnings came at 75.9-84.6% despite flattish operational metrics due to seasonality where data services contracted amid lower data yields.

Despite that, 9M23 blended ARPU was managed at c. IDR43/sub, which could be a  sign of consistent market repair.

Meanwhile, 3Q23 EBITDA grew 0.4% qoq supported by manageable cost especially on S&M as well as G&A.

We revise up EXCL's '23F and '24F net profit by 8.3% and 1.8%, respectively. Furthermore, pricing consolidation momentum is expected to continue in 4Q23 as price adjustment has taken place in November '23.

Maintain BUY with a target price of IDR2,950, implying 3.0x 2024F EV/EBITDA or above -1SD 5-year historical mean.

Regards,
Devi Harjoto – KBVS Research