EXCL - Solid yearly, weaker quarterly

KBVS Update
Friday, 9 August 2024

EXCL - Solid yearly, weaker quarterly
(Reiterate BUY - TP: IDR2,600)

Solid 1H24, growth slows in 2Q24. In 1H24, EXCL recorded revenue of IDR17.05 tn (+8.2% yoy). 2Q24 revenue grew modestly by 2.1% qoq to IDR8.61 tn. Due to a 3.1% qoq rise in interest costs and a higher effective tax rate, 2Q24 net profit declined 9.9% qoq.

1H24 net profit exceeds both ours and cons’. 1H24 EXCL net profit significantly exceeded both our and consensus expectations by 63.4% and 56.8%, respectively. EXCL's optimized digital sales channels mix contributed to an 8.4% yoy reduction in S&M expenses.

Revising up FY24 net profit forecast. Due to lower-than-expected S&M expenses in 1H24, we have reduced our FY24 S&M expense estimate to IDR2.18 tn. Consequently, our FY24 net profit forecast has been revised upward by 26.3% to IDR2.04 tn.

Reiterate BUY with TP of IDR2,600, based on 2.6x 2024F EV/EBITDA (-1SD 7yrs-historical mean).

Regards,
Steven Gunawan - KBVS Research