AMMN - Production Ramp-Up Meets Structural Supply Shortage

KBVS Update
Tuesday, 9 June 2026

AMMN – Production Ramp-Up Meets Structural Supply Shortage
(Initiate BUY; TP at IDR6,500)

■ We projected Phase 8 normalization to drive AMMN’s mined volume to 800k dmt (+79.1% YoY).

■ Wood Mackenzie forecasts global demand to surge +24% to 42.7 Mt by 2035, driven by widespread electrification and the AI boom.

■ We project AMMN will achieve revenues of USD3.8 bn in FY26F and USD4.2 bn in FY27F, with EBITDA reaching USD1.9 bn and USD2.1 bn. Furthermore, net profit is forecast to surge 223.7% YoY to USD806 mn in FY26F.

■ Initiate BUY with EV/EBITDA-based TP of IDR 6,500/share, as we believe the company is entering a multi-year earnings compounding phase. Our valuation implies a 14.5x FY26F EV/EBITDA. Key risks: production shortfalls, commodity weakness, regulatory headwinds.

Regards,
Ashalia Fitri – KBVS Research Team