MDKA - 1Q25 missed

MDKA - 1Q25 missed Merdeka Copper Gold (MDKA)’s 1Q25 results came in below expectations, with net income turning to a loss of ‐USD 4mn (4Q24: USD11 mn, 1Q24: ‐USD5 mn), reflecting margin compression across key segments. This was driven by a sharp drop in export sales (‐52.8% yoy), bringing revenue down to USD502 mn (‐12.1% qoq, ‐7.2% yoy), missing our and consensus estimates by 19.2% and 22.0%, respectively. The decline was mainly due to lower contributions from nickel (‐USD79 mn) and copper (‐USD9 mn), as NPI and HGNM volumes fell -25% and -31% yoy, with margins down to USD1,528/t and USD242/t. Copper production dropped 22% yoy, with margin declining to USD1.37/lb (‐46% qoq) due to higher processing costs and lower leach recovery. Additionally, lower saprolite output followed heavy pre‐sales in 4Q24 and ongoing development at MBMA’s downstream facilities (e.g. SLNC HPAL, under construction). Gold was the only bright spot, with revenue rising USD51 mn as stronger sales and ASP lifted margin to USD1,825/oz (+75% yoy). Gross profit held up, improving slightly (‐0.9% qoq, +73.3% yoy). (Source : KBVS Research, Company)