BBCA - 5M26 Inline; Capitulation Unlocks Entry Point

KBVS Update
Tuesday, 23 June 2026

BBCA: 5M26 Inline; Capitulation Unlocks Entry Point
(Maintain BUY; GGM TP: IDR9,480)

* Bank-only net profit hit IDR25.68 tn, or 42.7% (KBVS)/41.7% (cons.) ‘26F and comfortably in line with the 38.4% 5YR hist. avg. Total loans grew +4.9% YoY and total TPF +8.8% YoY higher (CASA +11.4% YoY). 5M26 NIM saw -47bps YoY compression, yet it remains slightly higher vs 4M26 and sits right at BBCA’s ‘26F guidance. CoC improved to 0.3%, beating BBCA’s ‘26F guidance.

* BI’s 100bps rate hike could offer margin tailwind. Domestic noise and foreign outflows have triggered a brutal sell-off. Our GGM stress test (+100 bps risk-free rate, +240 bps ERP) establishes structural floor of IDR6,860.

* Maintain BUY with GGM-based TP of IDR9,480 (3.8x ‘26F P/B); the stock currently trades at 2.5x ‘26F P/B, below its -2SD of 2.8x ‘26F P/B.

Regards,
Akhmad Nurcahyadi - KBVS Research