BSDE - Modest ‘25F growth but stronger profitability

KBVS Update
Monday, 19 May 2025

BSDE - Modest ‘25F growth but stronger profitability
(Reiterate BUY - TP: IDR1,200)

Inline 1Q25 marketing sales; ‘25F growth seen as modest. BSDE posted a 9.5% yoy growth in 1Q25 presales, driven by a 19.2% surge in shophouse sales, reaching 24.3% of its ‘25F target. Despite potential support from VAT incentives, economic challenges prompt a cautious outlook, with ‘25F sales growth projected at 2.9% yoy.

‘25F gross margin to improve despite slower revenue growth. In ‘25F, revenue growth is projected to slow to 1.2% yoy after a high 19.6% increase in ’24. Despite slower revenue growth, a favorable sales mix is expected to boost gross margin to 65.1%.

Enhanced infrastructure connectivity as a further catalyst. Despite economic challenges, demand for BSDE’s residential and shophouse properties is expected to stay strong, supported by new township facilities and improved infrastructure like the Serbaraja toll road.

Reiterate BUY with TP of IDR1,200. Maintain our BUY call with a target price of IDR1,200, using 5yrs DCF (WACC: 11.1%; LTG: 3%), implying 0.6x ‘25F P/B and 80.1% discount to ‘25F RNAV.

Regards,
Steven Gunawan - KBVS Research