CTRA - FY targets intact despite 3Q slowdown

KBVS Update
Tuesday, 4 November 2025

CTRA - FY targets intact despite 3Q slowdown
(Reiterate BUY - TP: IDR1,400)

9M25 results inline despite 3Q25 slowdown. 3Q25 revenue dropped 20.3% qoq to IDR2.5 tn due to slower land-lot and housing recognition, but 9M25 revenue still grew 17.9% yoy to IDR8.4 tn, 74.6% of the FY estimate. Despite higher costs, EBITDA climbed 20.5% yoy to IDR2.5 tn, tracking 73.7% of the FY forecast.

Earnings on track with modest ‘25F growth. Revenue is projected to inch up 0.5% yoy to IDR11.2 tn in ‘25F, reflecting slower recognition from a 12.3% ytd decline in contract liabilities. Property development revenue is expected to be flat (-0.7% yoy) at IDR8.8 tn, with land lots, houses and shophouses growing 2.9% yoy, while apartment and office sales drop 36.7% yoy. Recurring revenue should rise 5.4% yoy to IDR2.4 tn, supported by stronger mall and healthcare contributions. This segment’s share of total revenue is set to increase to 21.4%, cushioning against macro pressures. EBITDA remains on track to reach IDR3.4 tn, while net profit is projected to grow 1.4% yoy to IDR2.2 tn with a stable 19.2% margin.

Reiterate BUY with TP of IDR1,400. Maintain our BUY call with a target price of IDR1,400, using 5yrs DCF (WACC: 11.2%; LTG: 3%), implying 1.0x ‘25F P/B and 73.1% discount to ‘25F RNAV.

Regards,
Steven Gunawan - KBVS Research