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EXCL - XL Axiata

EXCL - Books a IDR989 bn in net profit for 9M22

08 November 2022

EXCL's 3Q22 EBITDA grew 2.3% qoq to IDR3.64 tn, accounting for 75.2/72.8% of ours/ consensus estimates. Net profit, however, declined 23.0% qoq to IDR366 bn in 3Q22, on the back of higher interconnection +27.7% qoq on the back of bundling program, and finance costs +15.6% qoq. despite a 2.7% decline in net profit, 9M22 bottom line achieved 80.0%/74.9% of ours/consensus estimate. Meanwhile, revenue grew 2.6% qoq to IDR7.52 tn in 3Q22 or increased 9.1% yoy to IDR21.6 tn, boosted by higher data and digital services. EXCL also managed to expand its subscribers base to 57.4 mn in 9M22, 92.2% of whom are on data. Furthermore, ARPU also increased 8.1% qoq in 3Q22 to IDR40K, resulted from rate adjustment during 1H22. (Source: Company, Investor Daily) Comment: Although trending in line with industry, EXCL's 9M22 bottom line still outperforms the incumbent, that in our view, is attributed largely to its price competitiveness. This also is followed by healthy subcsribers growth. In addition, we opine that EXCL is less likely to prone from legacy slow down thanks it to its high concentration in data users. Therefore, we believe that 3G shutdown that currently oning, will help it achieve cost efficiency in middle to long run.

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