Indonesian Macro Update - Trade Balance 01 Sep 2024
KBVS MACRO UPDATE
Monday, 1 September 2025
Trade Surplus Continues to Support Rupiah Stability
As expected, Indonesia’s trade surplus in Jul ‘25 extended its streak to 63 consecutive months, with the surplus edging higher to USD4.18 bn (Cons.: USD3.0 bn; KBVS: USD3.20 bn; Prev.: USD4.11 bn). On the export side, growth was mainly supported by non-oil and gas exports. On the import side, the steepest declines were recorded in Articles of Iron and Steel (HS73)._
The slowdown in both imports and exports reflects anticipatory adjustments ahead of the implementation of Trump tariffs in Aug ‘25. Nevertheless, with Indonesia’s Manufacturing PMI in Aug ’25 rebounding into expansionary territory, prospects for trade—particularly exports—look more favorable in the coming months.
With the trade surplus remaining resilient, we expect continued support for Rupiah stability within the IDR16,220–IDR16,420 per USD range through end-September 2025, especially if aided by a potential Fed rate cut in mid-September. Additionally, we hope domestic political conditions will stabilize soon, so that non-economic risks can be mitigated and avoid exerting further negative impact on domestic financial markets.
Regards,
Fikri C Permana – KBVS Research Team