ISAT - Cost discipline offsets muted top-line growth

KBVS Update
Thursday, 30 October 2025

ISAT - Cost discipline offsets muted top-line growth
(Reiterate BUY - TP: IDR2,500)

Sustains qoq EBITDA growth despite rising costs in 3Q25. 9M25 performance softened, with revenue down 1.6% yoy to IDR41.2 tn due to lower data-revenue (-4.9%) and a 3.7% decline in subscribers. Despite higher data-traffic (+6.1% yoy), EBITDA fell 3.3% yoy to IDR19.3 tn, with the margin narrowing to 56.0%. Quarterly, revenue rose 3.8% qoq to IDR14.1 tn and EBITDA edged up 0.8% despite higher costs, reflecting better cost-control.

Minor revenue revision offset by margin gains from cost discipline. Total expenses in 9M25 fell 0.1% yoy to IDR33.3 tn, supported by stable cash-costs. Despite a 3.7% decline in subscribers due to competition and weak FBB monetization, the company is expected to maintain cost-discipline. ‘25F revenue forecast is trimmed by 1.5% to IDR56.5 tn (+1.0% yoy). Operational synergies should lower cash-costs by 0.7% yoy, driving a higher EBITDA margin of 48.1% and 3.0% yoy EBITDA growth.

Reiterate BUY with TP of IDR2,500, based on 2.9x ‘25F EV/EBITDA, or within 5yrs avg. historical mean.

Regards,
Steven Gunawan - KBVS Research