ASII - 1Q26 earnings likely to stay soft on seasonal run-rate

KBVS Update
Wednesday, 15 April 2026

ASII - 1Q26 earnings likely to stay soft on seasonal run-rate
(Maintain BUY; TP: IDR6,950)

* Pressure on 2W and 4W sales likely to persist coupled with challenging HEMCE segment amid the year-to-date coal price spike. Despite we expect 1Q26 actual result will beat our expectation, the latest key data metrics such as 2W and 4W in Mar26 and HEMCE operational updates suggest that the seasonal weak first quarter earnings could remain intact.

* On positive side, agribusiness division will continue to shine and we also anticipate a steady stronger financial services divisional net revenue.

* In all, we believe Astra could maintain its favorable trajectory. The Group's proven, diversified portfolio, which effectively mitigates sector-specific risks tied with dividend play sentiment has reinforces our view of Astra as a compelling investment.

* Maintain Buy with SOTP-based TP of IDR6,950 (8.6x ‘26F P/E), currently at 7.7x, or slightly below its +1SD of 8.1x ‘26F P/E.

Regards,
Akhmad Nurcahyadi - KBVS Research team