Automotive - Sharp drop sales volume was largely a seasonal impact, still inline

KBVS Update
Friday, 17 April 2026

Automotive - Sharp drop sales volume was largely a seasonal impact, still inline
(Maintain Neutral)

* The sharp contraction in car sales in Mar ’26 (-13.8% YoY, -24.6% MoM) was largely a seasonal impact of fewer working days during the Eid al-Fitr holiday. Nonetheless, these figures remain aligned with our expectations. We maintain a cautious outlook, yet remain confident that our Apr ’26F and 4M26F forecasts will stay on track.

* While we expect Toyota (Zenix, Veloz) to maintain its dominance in the HEV segment, the same does not yet apply to the BEV market. In our view, the influx of new models from non-Japanese brands (ICE and especially EV variant) will serve as a critical catalyst for industry growth. Softer interest rate environment should provide a necessary demand cushion.

* However, our stance on the sector remains unchanged, primarily due to weaker purchasing power, stagnant disposable income, and fragile consumer confidence amid prolonged uncertainty. Given its diversified business portfolio and attractive valuation, we continue to prefer ASII over its peers (AUTO, IMAS, DRMA).

* ⁠We maintain our Neutral stance on the automotive sector and BUY rating for ASII, SOTP TP of IDR 6,950 (8.6x ’26F P/E).

Regards,
Akhmad Nurcahyadi - KBVS Research