ESSA - Riding the ammonia price tailwind

KBVS update
Wednesday, 24 June 2026

ESSA - Riding the Ammonia Price Tailwind
(Initiate BUY: TP at IDR940)

Leveraged to ammonia price upside. As ammonia accounts for more than 80% of revenue, ESSA stands out as one of the biggest beneficiaries of stronger ammonia prices.

Balance sheet deleveraging represents a structural earnings re-rating catalyst. ESSA has been debt-free since 3Q25. This materially improves EBT-to-EBITDA conversion and supports a net profit CAGR of 7.3% over FY25–FY30F.

Initiate BUY with DCF based TP of IDR 940/share. Our valuation implies 14,3x ‘26F P/E and 5,9x ‘26F EV/EBITDA . Key downside risks include: sustained ammonia prices below USD380/mt beyond our normalization assumption.

Regards,
Atikah Tri Adriyanti - KBVS Research team