Fixed Income Update 16 Jul 2026
KBVS WEEKLY FIXED INCOME UPDATE
Thursday, 16 July 2026
Global Risks and Domestic Resilience
Globally, escalating US–Iran tensions and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have pushed Brent crude back above USD83/bbl, reviving global energy supply concerns, inflation risks, and expectations that major central banks will remain cautious despite softer June U.S. inflation. Although U.S. headline CPI eased to 3.5% YoY in June on lower energy prices, the recent rebound in oil prices following the Hormuz disruption suggests the disinflation trend may prove temporary.
On the other hand, The Fed's policy credibility improved after Chair Kevin Warsh launched five task forces to strengthen evidence-based policymaking and enhance institutional transparency, reinforcing confidence in a disciplined monetary policy framework.
Domestically, S&P reaffirmed Indonesia's sovereign rating at 'BBB/A-2' with a Stable Outlook, highlighting the country's institutional resilience, prudent fiscal management, and policy credibility despite elevated external uncertainties.
Regards,
KBVS Economist Team