ITMG - 9M25 Missed, 3Q25 Margins Rebounded

ITMG - 9M25 Missed, 3Q25 Margins Rebounded ITMG booked a 3Q25 net profit of USD40 mn (+52.3% qoq, -72.5% yoy), bringing 9M25 net profit to USD131 mn (-52.2% yoy), below our estimates (37%) and consensus (52%). The quarterly recovery was driven by higher sales revenue of USD450 mn (+3.0% qoq, -26.0% yoy) and improved gross profit of USD102 mn (+14.5% qoq), as lower fuel and mining service costs helped lift margins. Despite the sequential uptick, performance remains pressured by ASP at USD77/ton (-21% yoy) amid soft global coal prices, and flat sales volume of 3.3 Mt, while 9M25 gross profit and operating income fell -32% yoy and -45% yoy, respectively. Export volumes dropped sharply in key markets such as China (-24%), Japan (-17%), and the Philippines (-56%). Comments: While 3Q25 showed margin recovery, overall earnings remain below expectations due to weak ASP and lower export mix. We maintain a HOLD stance for now pending clearer signs of coal price recovery and stronger sales momentum