ANTM - Beat FY25 driven by Gold ASP, but 4Q margin weakness emerges

ANTM - Beat FY25 driven by Gold ASP, but 4Q margin weakness emerges Aneka Tambang (ANTM) posted 4Q25 revenue of IDR12.6tn (-3.0% qoq, -51.5% yoy) on a sharp drop in gold sales to 3,331 kg (-78% qoq), but FY25 still reached a record with revenue at IDR84.6tn (+22.3% yoy) and net profit at IDR7.21tn (+97.7% yoy). Profit growth was largely price-driven, with gold revenue up +15% yoy to IDR66.5tn despite volume declining -15% yoy, implying ~+35% yoy ASP increase. Margins showed early pressure as 4Q EBITDA fell to IDR767bn (-61.6% qoq) with margin at 6.1% (vs FY25: 11.1%), indicating rising D&A and opex. Operationally, nickel ore volumes surged (production +62% yoy), but pricing remained weak, while bauxite and alumina delivered the most stable growth (segment profit IDR2.92tn, +62% yoy). Balance sheet remains solid, but ongoing capex cycle across EV battery, smelter, and SGAR projects is likely to cap FCF and dividends, while FY26 outlook remains highly sensitive to gold prices. (Source : Company, KBVS Research)