Indonesia Macro Update - New Coal Export Regulations: Short-Term Headwinds, Long-Term Policy Transition
KBVS MACRO UPDATE
Monday, 20 July 2026
New Coal Export Regulations: Short-Term Headwinds, Long-Term Policy Transition
Indonesia's centralized coal export framework under PP No. 24/2026, Permendag No. 15/2026, and KMK No. 31/MK/BC/2026 establishes PT Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia (PT DSI) to strengthen export governance, transaction transparency, DHE management, and fiscal compliance. While the reform is unlikely to materially affect benchmark coal prices, it shifts the investment focus from policy intent to execution risk.
Coal accounted for 8.85% of Indonesia's non-oil and gas exports in 5M26, making export continuity critical for the trade balance and FX inflows. We assume limited disruption during 2H26, supported by phased implementation and existing long-term contracts, with coal prices, demand, and RKAB realization remaining the primary earnings drivers.
The main downside risk is higher-than-expected execution costs, including shipment delays, buyer diversification, and a less favorable PT DSI transaction model, which could erode the reform's expected fiscal, FX, and valuation benefits. We view the Jun–Sep '26 trade releases and PT DSI's implementation progress as the first meaningful test of whether the framework can improve governance without undermining export competitiveness.
Regards,
Khairunnisa N Syahfiraputri & Adolf R B Setiadi - KBVS Research Team