Indonesia Macro Update - Trade Balance 02 Jul 2026
KBVS MACRO UPDATE
Thursday, 2 July 2026
Indonesia's Trade Surplus Ends After Six Years
Indonesia's trade balance unexpectedly reversed into a deficit of USD1.61 bn in Jun ’26, marking the country's first monthly trade deficit after 72 consecutive months of surpluses and the largest deficit since Apr '19. The primary downside came from the export side, where export value declined -5.73% YoY to USD23.20 bn, mainly due to weaker non-oil and gas exports, which fell -4.50% YoY. On the import side, import value increased 22.16% YoY to USD24.81 bn, mainly driven by a 70.78% YoY surge in oil and gas imports, while non-oil and gas imports remained robust, rising 14.89% YoY.
Since China remains Indonesia's largest export destination, accounting for 25.90% of Indonesia's non-oil and gas exports, the moderation in China's industrial activity and commodity demand has also weighed on Indonesia's export performance. Overall, Indonesia's trade balance is expected to gradually move back towards surplus over the coming months as global oil prices continue to ease following the de-escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Regards,
Khairunnisa N Syahfiraputri & Anggun Rahmadani - KBVS Research Team