Indonesia Macro Update - Trade Balance 03 Jun 2026
KBVS MACRO UPDATE
Wednesday, 3 June 2026
Near-Zero Surplus as Import Surge Overwhelms Export Rebound
Indonesia's trade surplus narrowed sharply to USD0.09 bn in Apr '26, extending the surplus streak to 72 consecutive months since May '20, but only by the slimmest margin on record in recent years. On the export side, the Apr '26 rebound was broad-based and driven by downstream manufacturing. The primary surprise came from the import side, where a broad-based surge across all categories overwhelmed the export beat.
The Apr '26 result serves as a clear warning signal for Indonesia's external balance, with oil and gas now the dominant risk factor for the trade surplus trajectory. On the export side, the structural outlook remains constructive. However, the oil and gas import surge introduces a new layer of vulnerability. The broad-based acceleration in non-oil and gas imports, particularly raw and auxiliary materials (+24.56% YoY) and consumption goods (+42.90% YoY), may reflect healthy underlying demand.
Key risks to watch include: (1) further escalation in global oil prices; (2) US tariff uncertainty weighing on global trade volumes and demand from key partners; and (3) continued capital outflows pressuring FX reserves and IDR, warranting close monitoring of BI's response.
Regards,
Fikri C Permana & Khairunnisa N Syahfiraputri - KBVS Research Team