Indonesia Macro Update - Trade Balance 15 Jul 2024
KBVS MACRO UPDATE
Monday, 15 July 2024
Trade Surplus Resumes For 50 Consecutive Months, Despite Lower MoM
As anticipated, the trend of increasing distribution prices over the past month and the decline in major global commodity prices have driven a decrease in international trade value and impacted Indonesia's export-import realization. Consequently, despite Indonesia continuing to mark the 50th consecutive month of surplus, the larger decline in exports compared to imports has led to a narrowing of the trade surplus to USD2.39 bn in Jun ‘24.
Simultaneously, the continuing trade surplus trend will provide cushion to the stability of the Rupiah amidst improving Manufacturing PMI from key trading partners - especially India and China – and an increase in risk-on behavior following the rising odds ratio of a Fed Rate pivot.
Regards,
Fikri C Permana - KBVS Research