Indonesia Macro Update - Trade Balance 18 Mar 2025
KBVS MACRO UPDATE
Tuesday, 18 March 2025
Indonesia’s Trade Surplus Persists, but Downside Risks Loom
Indonesia’s trade surplus extended its streak for the 58th consecutive month in Feb ‘25, reaching USD3.12 bn (Cons: USD2.40 bn, KBVS: USD2.08 bn, Prev: USD3.45 bn). From a sectoral perspective, the largest monthly increase in exports in Feb ‘25 came from Animal and Vegetable Fats&Oils (HS15), which surged 37.04% to USD2.94 bn (Prev: USD2.14 bn).
On the import side, the Ramadan and Eid holiday cycle typically drives increased mobility, which was reflected in a sharp rise in crude oil and refined oil product imports. Despite solid trade performance in Feb ‘25, concerns over the potential impact of Trump’s tariffs on Indonesia’s exports is still looming.
Looking ahead, the Rupiah’s depreciation in Mar ‘25 is likely to constrain consumer goods imports. Moreover, the extended Eid holiday period (shorter working days) is expected to weigh on export performance in the same month, despite the recent uptick in commodity prices since mid-March.
Regards,
KBVS Research Team