Indonesian Macro Update - Trade Balance 01 Oct 2025
KBVS MACRO UPDATE
Wednesday, 1 October 2025
Exports Drive Indonesia’s Largest Trade Surplus Since Oct ‘22
In line with market expectations, Indonesia’s trade surplus extended its streak to 64 consecutive months in August 2025, rising to USD5.49 bn (Cons: USD4.08 bn; KBVS: USD 5.11 bn; Prev: USD 4.17 bn). This marks the largest surplus since Oct ‘22, underpinned by resilient export performance alongside subdued imports. Exports reached USD24.96 bn, expanding by 5.78% YoY (Cons: 6.50% YoY; KBVS: 10.74% YoY; Prev: 9.86% YoY). On the imports side, total shipments reached USD19.47 bn, declining by -6.56% YoY (Cons: 0.20% YoY; KBVS: 10.83% YoY; Prev: -5.86% YoY).
The strengthening trade surplus should provide a supportive buffer for Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves and help underpin rupiah stability. This dynamic is expected to be reinforced by the increase in USD deposit rates effective 29 Sep ‘25, aimed at safeguarding onshore USD liquidity. Looking ahead, we view Indonesia’s manufacturing momentum as a positive signal for export growth.
Finally, while the recent rupiah depreciation may serve as a competitive advantage for Indonesian manufactured exports in global markets, it also carries potential risks. We expect weaker currency conditions to temper import volumes, particularly for consumer goods, as higher costs weigh on demand. Overall, however, Indonesia’s export sector is well-positioned to benefit from both favorable global demand trends and improved domestic production dynamics.
Regards,
KBVS Research Team