ISAT - 4Q25F recovery intact; FY26F margin lift on discipline

KBVS Update
Thursday, 5 February 2026

ISAT - 4Q25F recovery intact; FY26F margin lift on discipline
(Reiterate BUY - TP: IDR2,500)

4Q25F: continued qoq recovery on healthier market conditions. ISAT should post another sequential improvement in 4Q25F, with data-services revenue +4.8% qoq to IDR11.3tn on market repair, simplified packs/vouchers, and modest seasonality, supported by data-traffic +6.9% qoq. Costs stay elevated (+4.4% qoq) on partnership/network/frequency fees, but tighter opex especially S&M (-3.2% qoq), drives cash-costs -1.1% qoq, lifting EBITDA +2.5% qoq, highlighting improving cost-discipline.

FY26F: solid operating momentum; margin lift driven by cost-discipline. Growth remains anchored by data-services, with revenue seen +7.2% yoy to IDR48.7tn on steady subs and rising traffic. Margins stay resilient as cost-discipline continues: total expenses rise only 3.8% yoy, supporting EBITDA +5.2% yoy to IDR28.6tn and a slight margin uptick to 48.3%. Net profit is projected at IDR5.5tn, with net margin improving to 9.3%.

Reiterate BUY with TP of IDR2,500, based on 3.2x FY26F EV/EBITDA, or within 5yrs avg. historical mean.

Regards,
Steven Gunawan - KBVS Research