TLKM - Eyes B2B & FMC for '25F growth after modest '24

KBVS Update
Tuesday, 22 April 2025

TLKM – Eyes B2B & FMC for '25F growth after modest '24
(Reiterate BUY - TP: IDR3,400)

Posts 2.2% qoq revenue growth in 4Q24; FY24 up 0.5%. TLKM's 4Q24 revenue rose 2.2% qoq to IDR37.7 tn, supported by modest growth in data revenue, bringing ’24 revenue to IDR150.0 tn, up 0.5%.

Lowering '25F forecasts, but FMC & B2B offer upside. TLKM’s revenue rose slightly by 0.5% in ’24 but is projected to grow by 2.6% in ‘25F, driven by strong B2B growth. The B2B segment outperformed B2C in ‘24 and is expected to be a key growth driver, especially as the MBB and FBB markets mature. FMC is forecast to grow by 5.8% in ‘25F, supported by higher data usage and network expansion, while the Indihome B2C and B2B segments are set to grow by 3.1% and 4.0%, respectively.

Reiterate BUY with TP of IDR3,400, based on 4.2x ‘25F EV/EBITDA (-1.5SD of 7yrs-historical mean).

Regards,
Steven Gunawan - KBVS Research