ANTM - OppenGold: ANTM’s Explosive Era and Nickel Comeback

KBVS Update
Thursday, 5 December 2024

ANTM - OppenGold: ANTM’s Explosive Era and Nickel Comeback
(Reinitiate BUY; TP: IDR2,100)

- Gold Powers Revenue Surge Amid Nickel Challenges. ANTM’s 3Q24 revenue surged to IDR20 tn (+37.4% qoq, +116.6% yoy), driving 9M24 revenue to IDR43.1 tn (+39.8% yoy), thanks to gold performance (83.1% of revenue) with a stunning 211.7% YoY growth in volume. Nickel faced headwinds due to RKAB delays, but FeNi recovery is anticipated in 4Q24 as shipments resume, paving the way for a rebound.

- Strategic Growth with Freeport Deal and Nickel Permits. ANTM strengthens its growth strategy with a Freeport gold offtake agreement, plans to increase nickel mining permits to 15 mn tons by 2025, and the upcoming Mempawah SGA refinery set for 1H25 operations. Revised FY24F forecasts project a +25.1% increase in revenue and a sharp +75.7% profit growth, underpinned by soaring gold prices (+28.1% YTD) and operational enhancements.

- Reinitiate BUY with a TP of IDR2,100 (7.7x 2025F EV/EBITDA, 1.4x 2025F P/BV), as ANTM leverages strong gold momentum and a recovering nickel segment.

Regards,
Laurencia Hiemas - KBVS Research