INCO – 1Q25: Missed despite one-off gain

INCO – 1Q25: Missed despite one-off gain Vale Indonesia (INCO) reported 1Q25 net profit of USD22 mn, up from USD7 mn in 4Q24, mainly due to a one-off gain from fair value recognition of its HNI stake tied to HPAL project deals with Huayou Cobalt; however, this still missed our estimate by 20.9% and consensus by 22.1%. Revenue dropped to USD207 mn (-14.6% qoq, -10.2% yoy), falling short of forecasts due to an unplanned furnace shutdown, lower nickel matte output, reduced shipments, and softer prices. INCO’s operational risk persists as it has only secured its mining quota (RKAB) for 1Q25 and is seeking an additional 2 mn tons from Bahodopi. We plan to revise our outlook downward amid nickel price pressure and quota uncertainty, from our previous TP of IDR4,300. (Source: Company, KBVS Research)