INCO - 3Q25 recovery shows operational turnaround, 9M25 slightly behind estimates

INCO - 3Q25 recovery shows operational turnaround, 9M25 slightly behind estimates Vale Indonesia (INCO) recorded 3Q25 net profit of USD27 mn (2Q25: USD3 mn, +96.8 yoy), bringing its 9M25 to USD52 mn (+2.6% yoy) below our estimates (50.4%) and cons. (59.9%). This performance was driven by nickel matte output and the first contribution from saprolite ore sales. Revenue grew to USD279 mn in 3Q25 (+26.5% qoq, +21.2% yoy), still slightly below our estimate (69.4%) and cons. (71.5%). Profitability strengthened sharply with EBITDA rising to USD75 mn (+86% qoq) and unit cash cost easing to USD9,304/tonne, reflecting smoother post-maintenance operations. Bahodopi commenced ahead of schedule on Jul 25, contributing 896k WMT and helping lift 9M25 nickel matte output to 54,975 tonnes (+4% yoy). Overall, this quarter was a turning point for INCO, with normalized operations, stable ASP, and new ore contribution offsetting previous cost pressures. (Source : Company)