PGEO - Record 1Q26 sets the stage for capacity-led growth

KBVS Update
Friday, 22 May 2026

PGEO – Record 1Q26 sets the stage for capacity-led growth
(Maintain BUY; TP IDR 1,100)

■ 1Q26: Record production, earnings surge on FX tailwind. PGEO 1Q26 revenue came in at USD116.56 mn (+14.82% YoY), in line with ours/cons. FY26F estimates (25.8%/25.8%), underpinned by a +15.22% YoY surge in consolidated electricity and steam output to a record 1,370 GWh. Blended capacity factor improved +430bps YoY to 90.77%, driven by first full-quarter contribution from Lumut Balai Unit 2 (COD Jun '25) and higher utilization across Kamojang and Ulubelu. Gross profit grew +15.14% YoY to USD67.57 mn, with GPM broadly stable at 57.97% (+16bps YoY) despite higher depreciation. EBITDA rose +15.00% YoY to USD96.54 mn (margin: 82.82%, +12bps YoY). At the bottom line, net profit surged +40.02% YoY to USD43.90 mn — reaching 28.5%/27.6% of KBVS/cons. FY26F forecasts — amplified by a USD12.21 mn swing in forex (1Q25: USD8.9 mn loss → 1Q26: USD3.3 mn gain).

■ Future expansion: Path to ~1 GW by 2028. PGEO is advancing an aggressive geothermal expansion pipeline anchored by several flagship near-term developments: Hululais Unit 1&2 (110MW, COD: 2028), co-generation program up to 230MW across multiple sites (COD: 2028–2033), Gunung Tiga 2x27.5MW (COD: 2029–2030), and Lumut Balai Unit 3&4 (2x55MW, COD: 2029 & 2032). Beyond greenfield capacity, PGEO is diversifying into new revenue streams via a Geothermal Green Data Centre (5MW scalable, commissioning: 2028), a green hydrogen pilot plant (commissioning: 4Q26F), and the patented Flow2Max real-time two-phase flow measurement system.

■ Steady FY26F before multiple step-ups in the coming years. We forecast FY26F revenue of USD450.8 mn (+4.2% YoY), EBITDA of USD345.5 mn (+3.9% YoY, margin: 76.6%), and net profit of USD155.2 mn (+12.2% YoY) on ~5,200 GWh production. FY27F should see the next leg up, led by Ulubelu Binary Units 1–3 (30MW; installed capacity: 757MW), while FY28F — with Hululais Unit 1&2 (110MW) and several binary/LP developments bringing total installed capacity to ~947MW — marks the more transformative inflection: we forecast FY28F revenue of USD624.8 mn (+30.0% YoY), EBITDA of USD480.1 mn (+30.1% YoY), and net profit of USD227.1 mn (+35.1% YoY).

■ Maintain BUY with TP IDR1,100/share.We maintain our BUY rating on PGEO with a DCF-based TP of IDR1,100/share (FY26F EV/EBITDA: 6.7x). The stock currently trades at 5.3x FY26F EV/EBITDA, below -1SD of its 1-year band, implying attractive entry valuation.

Regards,
Adolf Richardo Bagus S – KBVS Research