Automotive - Disrupted purchasing power, national motorcycle sales target revised to 6.3 mn units

Automotive - Disrupted purchasing power, national motorcycle sales target revised to 6.3 mn units The performance of the national motorcycle market until mid-2024 showed less than encouraging results. The Indonesian Motorcycle Industry Association (AISI) has revised the national motorcycle sales target for this year. According to the latest data from AISI, national motorcycle sales decreased by 0.96% yoy, to 3,170,994 units during the period from January to June 2024. Sales segmentation shows that 90.36% of total motorcycle sales in Indonesia come from automatic scooters. Followed by underbone motorcycles, which contributed 5.40%, and sport motorcycles with a contribution of 4.60%. Responding to these conditions, AISI estimates that national motorcycle sales will be in the range of 6.2 mn units to 6.3 mn units by the end of 2024. Previously, AISI predicted sales of around 6.2 mn units to 6.5 mn units for this year. "Motorcycle sales could reach 6.3 mn units if the average monthly sales are around 530,000 units," said Sigit. (Source : Kontan) Comment : Latest data showed that 2W sales remain in line with our expectation at 34.5% vs. 34.9% last year (see our previous automotive sector report). The new AISI ‘24F 2W guidance (revised down) is now getting closer to our ‘24F 2W estimation for 2W sales (released in November 23 for the 2024 outlook). We still kept our ’24 forecast for motorcycle sales unchanged. Maintain our overweight stance for the automotive sector.