Automotive - Sept25 car sales down 15% yoy

Automotive - Sept25 car sales down 15% yoy The Association of Indonesian Motor Vehicle Industries (Gaikindo) has announced car sales performance for Sept25, which is still weaker compared to the same period last year. According to the latest Gaikindo data received by Bisnis, wholesale car sales in Sept25 were 62,071 units, a 15.1% yoy decrease compared to 73,108 units in Sept24. Meanwhile, retail car sales, or sales from dealers to consumers, also decreased by 12.2% yoy to 63,723 units in Sept25, from 72,601 units in the same period last year. On a monthly basis, wholesale car sales from factories to dealers increased slightly by 0.5% mtm, compared to 61,777 units in Aug25. Chairman of Gaikindo I, Jongkie Sugiarto, stated that so far they have not revised their car sales target, despite the automotive market weakening throughout 2025. It should be noted that Gaikindo previously set a target of car sales reaching 900,000 units this year, based on the realization of car sales in 2024, which reached 865,000 units wholesale. Based on brand, the highest car sales from January to September 2025 were still achieved by Toyota with 181,817 units, followed by Daihatsu, which is also under the Astra Group, with 95,307 units. In order, the brand holders (APM) that recorded the best-selling sales in Indonesia were Mitsubishi Motors with 48,944 units, Honda with 46,623 units, and Suzuki with 44,253 units. (Source : Bisnis Indonesia). Comment : The Indonesian car market in 2025 is remain under pressure, as evidenced by the double-digit decline in both monthly and cumulative sales figures for the first nine months. The sharp drop in retail sales in September, combined with the cumulative deficit, confirms a sustained weakness in consumer demand. Gaikindo's original target of 900,000 units is now mathematically challenging to achieve. The industry is in a waiting period for the official revision of the sales target, which is expected to be significantly lower to reflect the current market reality. On the other hand, the 8M25 4W sales remain arrive inline with our ‘25F with a run-rate of 69.3% vs 72.3%. We will visit our model and start to rolled over our forecast for car sales to ‘26F period.