Banking - BI estimates ‘24 loan growth within the range of 8%-11%

Banking - BI estimates ‘24 loan growth within the range of 8%-11% Bank Indonesia (BI) estimates credit growth next year will be around 8%–11%, or similar and around to this year revised target, yet with a smaller lower limit. BI initially targeted credit growth in 2023 to reach 10%–12%, then revised up the target to 9%–11%. Latest data from BI recorded that banking total credit grew by 8.96% yoy. Specifically, SME segment grew by 8.34% yoy. (Source: Cnbc Indonesia). Comment : We think ‘24F loan growth could arrives within the same figures with ‘23F (KBVS: 9%-10%). Our stocks under coverage bank only loan growth in Aug23 at 11.2% yoy, while currently only BBCA that has released its Sept9M23 results, which booked loan growth at 12.3% yoy. Key would be on the upcoming election and more stable global concern on mounting yields, as it could bring more confidence to domestic loan demand appetite. Maintain our overweight rating for Banking sector, with BBRI and BBNI as our top picks.