BBNI - 1H24 PATMI at IDR10.69tn vs our forecast of IDR10.76tn; inline

KBVS Update
Friday, 23 August 2024

BBNI: 1H24 PATMI at IDR10.69tn vs our forecast of IDR10.76tn; inline
(Maintain BUY; TP: IDR6,530)

* BBNI 1H24 net income at IDR 10.69tn was inline and around 99.3% of our 1H24F forecast for BBNI net profit of IDR 10.76tn. In all, 1H24 earnings came in at around 45% of our and ’24 consensus expectation for BBNI net profit.

* The bank reported another robust loan growth. Total loan grew 11.7% yoy (4.6% qoq) and beating management's upper ‘24F loan growth expectation of 9.0-11.0% yoy and our forecast of 10.4% yoy.

* Key risk metrics, CoC, made a meaningful improvement to 1.0%, or 40 basis points better than 1.4% in 1H23 and beating BBNI’s ‘24F expectation of <1.4% (KBVS: 1.39%). NIM was well managed at 4.0% and slightly expanded by 3 bps. NPL stood at 2.0% and 50 bps healthier vs. 1H23 numbers (2.5%). Loan at risk, which have never been our concerns since our ‘24F outlook for BBNI was released in November 23, also recorded another massive improvement tanked by 380bps to 12.3% vs 16.1% in 1H23.

* BBNI officially released its ‘24F new guidance with loan growth upper forecast at 12% yoy vs. 11.0% yoy previously. Key crucial role will be on Jul-Aug24 bank only figures and 9M24 consolidated earnings growth, which we expect will record another inline result. Since our latest report (24 June 2024) vs. yesterday's closing, the stock has recorded a capital gain of 16.2%. Maintain BUY with GGM TP of IDR6,530 (1.4x ‘24F P/B), while it is currently trading at 1.2x ‘24F P/B (average historical mean) and slightly below +1SD historical mean of 1.4x.

Regards,
Akhmad Nurcahyadi - KBVS Research