BBNI - 9M23 earnings 15.1% yoy, overall inline

KBVS Update
Thursday, 2 Nov 23

BBNI: 9M23 earnings 15.1% yoy, overall inline
(Maintain BUY; TP: IDR5,750)

•    BBNI 9M23 earnings grew 15.1% yoy, arriving in line with KBVS and street expectation at a run rate of 78%/75% (5yr hist avg 75%). Loan growth at 7.8% yoy is within BBNI’s ‘23F loan forecast range of 7%-9% yoy, while TPF recorded 9.1% yoy higher with manageable CASA (+5.6% yoy) at around 69% of the total third-party fund.

•    NIM (4.64%) arrives at BBNI’s ‘23F NIM forecast of >4.6%, while NPL reported healthier by 70bps yoy and 20bps on qoq basis. CoC saw a better figure, improves strong by 60bps yoy (20bps qoq) to 1.4% from 2.0% in 9M22 and within ‘23F BBNI target of below 1.5%.

•    At this juncture we deemed BBNI to remain attractive. Better asset quality and stronger loan growth coupled with restoring TPF growth are become several key growths for BBNI, in our view. We also think, further loan repricing should strengthen top line growth and at the same time support NIM expansion to continue. We also like BBNI as the stock continue to become one of the most held stocks whereas as of YTD, foreign investors held around 27.0% or an increase by around 185.9bps yoy.

•    Maintain BUY with higher rolled-over TP of IDR5,750. We revisit our model and rolled-over BBNI’s valuation to ‘24F. Our GGM intrinsic value for BBNI is pegged at 1.3x ‘24F P/B while its currently trading at 1.2x ‘24F P/B, or below its +1SD historical mean.

Regards,
Akhmad Nurcahyadi - KBVS Research