BRMS - Riding the Gold Wave

KBVS Update
Friday, 21 November 2025

BRMS - Riding the Gold Wave
(Maintain BUY; TP: IDR1,200/share)

■ Stronger Pricing Offsets Royalty Pressure, Advancing Profitability. BRMS posted a solid 3Q25 with revenue at USD63mn (+9% qoq, +32.9% yoy) and 9M25 at USD184mn (+69% yoy), broadly in line. Gold ASP rose to USD3,468/oz (+5.7% qoq), lifting gold revenue to USD61mn, with sales at 17,558 oz. Ore grade eased to 1.76g/t but remained high vs last year. Gross margin dipped to 49.5% on royalty pressure, though mining costs stayed low. Net profit surged +75.5% qoq to USD15mn, bringing 9M25 earnings to USD38mn (+142% yoy), well ahead of our forecast.

■ A Broad Catalyst Pipeline Sets BRMS Up for Its Next Rerating Phase. MSCI & GDX ETF inclusion (boosting global visibility), debt funding ~60% of USD500mn Palu capex, CPM CIL upgrade (2,000 tpd) starting 2027, underground mining ramp-up from 4Q27 (>4 g/t), and 2027 JORC copper resource update at Gorontalo. Exploration at SHS, LMR, and others further strengthens the multi-asset growth pipeline.

■ Revised Earnings on Stronger Price Assumptions. We raise gold/silver price assumptions for FY25–27 to USD3,300/4,500/4,000 per oz and USD35/36/34 per oz, lifting revenue (+3.1–30%), EBITDA (+8.8–65.2%), and net profit (+36–119.3%). This implies FY27F EBITDA of USD123 mn and net profit of USD60 mn, driven by higher ASP and operating leverage. We also revise up 2027F volume by +5.7% as the CIL unit is now expected to contribute earlier. These upgrades affirm BRMS’s high earnings sensitivity to gold and strengthen its growth runway as underground production ramps in 4Q27.

■ BUY Maintained, TP Upgraded to IDR1,200/ sh on Higher Gold Assumptions and Growth Visibility. We maintain our BUY rating and raise TP to IDR1,200/sh (from IDR560/sh, +26.3% upside), reflecting revised pricing and project assumptions. Valuation reflects FY26F P/E of 65.9x and EV/EBITDA of 59.3x, supported by strong EPS CAGR and production growth from CIL and underground assets. Our upgrade captures earnings lift from higher gold ASPs and volume expansion.

Regards, 
Laurencia Hiemas - KBVS Research