BSDE - Return to normalized earnings momentum

KBVS Update
Monday, 10 November 2025

BSDE - Return to normalized earnings momentum
(Reiterate BUY - TP: IDR1,200)

Normalizing after a high 9M24 base. BSDE posted 3Q25 revenue of IDR2.4 tn, bringing 9M25 revenue to IDR8.8 tn (-13% yoy), or 74% of our FY estimate. Development revenue fell 15% yoy due to a high base from VAT-exempt accelerated handovers in 9M24. EBIT dropped sharply to IDR324 bn in 3Q, taking 9M25 EBIT to IDR2.1 tn (-40% yoy), while higher interest expenses dragged net profit down 50% yoy to IDR1.4 tn, still 75% of our FY target.

Earnings to normalize with stable gross margin and recurring-revenue. We maintain our ‘25F estimates, with short-term contract liabilities down 7.1% yoy to IDR7.1 tn, reflecting normalization after last year’s strong handovers. Revenue is projected at IDR11.8 tn (-14.5% yoy), driven by a 17.5% drop in development revenue to IDR9.6 tn and a 23.7% fall in landed-housing revenue to IDR3.9 tn, while recurring-revenue remains stable at IDR2.2 tn (+0.9% yoy). Gross margin should stay solid at 63.8%, yielding IDR7.5 tn gross profit. Net profit is expected to normalize to IDR1.8 tn, down 35.5% from normalized ‘24A earnings.

Reiterate BUY with TP of IDR1,200. Maintain our BUY call with a target price of IDR1,200, using 5yrs DCF (WACC: 11.1%; LTG: 3%), implying 0.6x ‘25F P/B and 80.1% discount to ‘25F RNAV.

Regards,
Steven Gunawan - KBVS Research