CPIN - 1Q26 results came beyond expectations on better chicken’ demand & ASP

KBVS Update
Thursday, 07 May 2026

CPIN - 1Q26 results came beyond expectations on better chicken' demand & ASP
(BUY, with TP IDR5,250)

* Charoen Pokphand Indonesia’ (CPIN) earnings grew significantly (+67.7% yoy/+13.1% qoq) in 1Q26 on better chicken’ (DOC & LB) demand and higher ASP with better costs management, despite higher LC and SBM prices. As a result, CPIN' 1Q26 earnings came way above ours’ (41.9%) and cons' (49.8%) expectation.

* CPIN' revenue reached IDR19.95 tn (+12.7% yoy/-0.7% qoq) in 1Q26 on better chicken’ (DOC & LB) demand and higher ASP amid festivities. Thus, CPIN’ 1Q26 revenue came above ours’ (26.1%) and cons’ (26.4%) expectation. 

* CPIN' gross profit and EBIT grew by 42.4% yoy/2.5% qoq and 61.8% yoy/12.4% qoq, respectively in 1Q26 on higher chicken’ ASP and demand during festivities with better costs management, despite higher LC and SBM prices. All in all, CPIN’ gross’, EBIT’ and net’ margin expanded to 22.3% (+460bps yoy/+70bps qoq), 16.6% (+510bps yoy/+200bps qoq) and 12.9% (+420bps yoy/+160bps qoq), respectively in 1Q26.

* We did not make any changes to our ‘26F revenue and earnings for CPIN as we had already factored in higher raw material (LC & SBM) prices in our prior report (CPIN’ FY25 results). Thus, we anticipate weaker performance from CPIN in 2Q26F and 3Q26F on the possibility of lower chicken’ demand and ASP, as fewer festivities and higher margin pressure are expected in 2Q26F and 3Q26F. All in all, we still expect CPIN’ earnings to grow 8.9% yoy to IDR6.2 tn, in ‘26F.

* Maintain BUY on CPIN with TP of IDR 5,250/share, which implies 14x ‘26F P/E. Currently, CPIN is trading at 10.8x ‘26F P/E or slightly below its -1.5stdev of its 5 years’ mean P/E, which, in our view, makes its current share price a good entry point for investors.

Regards,
Andre Suntono - KBVS Research team