CTRA - Strong Handover-Led FY25, Softer Cycle Ahead

KBVS Update
Thursday, 16 April 2026

CTRA - Strong Handover-Led FY25, Softer Cycle Ahead
(Reiterate BUY - TP: IDR1,000)

Strong 4Q spike, FY25 beats across the board. CTRA posted a sharp 4Q25 rebound (revenue +68% QoQ), driving FY25 revenue to IDR12.6 tn (+12.8% YoY), above estimates. Growth was led by faster handovers and strong bulk office sales.

FY26F: normalization after strong cycle. We expect FY26F revenue to decline -7.6% YoY to IDR11.7 tn, driven by softer property development (-10.3% YoY) as core segments and high-rise contributions moderate post-peak sales. A -23% YoY drop in advances signals weaker forward demand, reinforcing downside risk to near-term growth despite stable unearned revenues.

Recurring income provides downside buffer. Recurring revenue stays a stabilizer, rising 4% YoY to IDR2.5 tn. Growth is led by hospitals (+14% YoY on full-year Surabaya contribution), while malls recover modestly (+2% YoY) on better occupancy and footprint expansion.

Margins stable, earnings to ease. Margins remain resilient (47.7%), supported by a richer residential mix offsetting lower-margin segments. However, softer revenue drives gross profit -7.3% YoY and net profit -10.8% YoY, normalizing after a strong FY25 base.

Maintain BUY with a TP of IDR1,000, using 5yrs DCF-based TP (WACC: 11.9%; LTG: 3%), implying 0.6x FY26F P/B and 80.8% discount to FY26F RNAV.

Regards,
Steven Gunawan - KBVS Research