EXCL - Operational efficiency should continue in ‘25F

KBVS Update
Friday, 22 November 2024

EXCL - Operational efficiency should continue in ‘25F
(Reiterate BUY - TP: IDR2,600)

9M24 revenue grows 6.3% yoy, but 3Q24 sees decline. In 9M24, EXCL reported a 6.3% yoy revenue increase. However, revenue declined 3.5% qoq in 3Q24 due to a 4.0% decrease in data-payload.

Better cost-controls offset interest-cost increases in ‘25F. Management’s focus on digital sales and operational efficiency has led to a significant reduction in ‘25F S&M costs, resulting in a projected '25F EBITDA margin of 50.6%, while increased interest-costs due to potential loan expansion have led to a 9.8% downward adjustment in the '25F net profit forecast.

Reiterate BUY with TP of IDR2,600, based on 2.7x ‘25F EV/EBITDA (-0.5SD 7yrs-historical mean).

Regards,
Steven Gunawan - KBVS Research