Fixed Income Update 25 Apr 2024
KBVS WEEKLY FIXED INCOME UPDATE
Thursday, 25 April 2024
Geopolitics Disrupts The Economy
The lifting of sanctions has led to an increase in Iran's crude oil exports to reach 1.29 mbpd, marking a 5-year high. This surge in exports has contributed to the decline in oil prices since Oct '23. However, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, involving Iran, have driven oil prices back up since early 2024. The aforementioned factor also contributes to an escalation in concerns within the global market, as evidenced by the fear zone observed on the Fear & Greed Index.
The release of labor market conditions indicated by weekly initial jobless claims, thus PCE (core and headline) Price Index and are expected to once again become the primary drivers of sentiment in the global market next week, alongside the release of US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Meanwhile, the release of GDP data from Germany and the EU, alongside CN Manufacturing PMI is also likely to determine the movement of the USD Index going forward.
Regards,
KBVS Research Team