GOTO - First Net Profit Achieved; Regulatory Headwinds Limit Upside
KBVS update
Tuesday, 26 May 2026
GOTO - First Net Profit Achieved; Regulatory Headwinds Limit Upside
(Maintain BUY; TP IDR58)
■Strongest Quarter on Record. GOTO delivered its first-ever net profit in 1Q26, recording IDR258 bn. Group Adjusted EBITDA reached IDR907 bn, up +131.0% YoY-running well ahead of the full year guidance midpoint of IDR3.3 tn on an annualized basis.
■ ODS: Strong Monetization, Regulatory Risk Building ODS Adjusted EBITDA grew +40.0% YoY to IDR439 bn. EBITDA/GTV margin expanded to 2.7%- a record high from 2.0% in 1Q25. However, the Government has reportedly agreed to cap ride-hailing platform commissions at 8.0%. We estimate this could reduce ODS net take rate by -170 bps to 17.2% and weigh on ODS Mobility revenue by as much as -35.7% YoY in '26F.
■GoPay: The Crown Jewel Inflects. Fintech Adjusted EBITDA surged +674.5% YoY to IDR364 bn. The loan book reached IDR9.9 tn (+59.0% YoY) with portfolio quality intact: >90-day NPL stable at 0.8% and current loan ratio sustained at 92.0%. The stable NPL profile reflects GoPay’s data-driven underwriting, supported by closed-loop ecosystem data, selective borrower acquisition, short-tenor exposure, and disciplined collections.
■ Path Toward Profitability. We forecast Group GTV of IDR752.6 tn (+9.8% YoY) and net revenue of IDR17.6 tn at a blended take-rate of 2.34%, GOTO is expected to remain slightly loss-making in '26F (net loss IDR248 bn) before delivering its first full-year net profit in '28F.
■BUY with Tp IDR58/Share. We reiterate our BUY with a target price of IDR58/share implying 16.2% upside, based on SOTP: 1.7x EV/Sales for ODS, 4.7x EV/Sales for GoPay, 1.9x EV/Sales for E-commerce, and mark-to-market for Bank Jago. Key risks to our call include intensifying competition, regulatory pressure on take rates, potential NPL creep amid rapid loan growth, and continued selling pressure from pre-IPO shareholders and co-founders.
Regards,
Atikah Tri Adriyanti - KBVS Research team