HMSP - Inline FY25 earnings; below cons. forecast

KBVS Update
Wednesday. 25 March 2026

HMSP – Inline FY25 earnings; below cons. forecast
(Maintain BUY; TP: IDR960)

* FY25 net profit arrived in line with our ‘25F PATMI for HMSP and came in below the consensus forecast. Sales volume remains weak due to continuing industry pressure, while a better quarterly figure was not supported by HMSP sales volume.

* Yet, the company recorded an inched-up market share to 30.7%. SKM remains as the backbone with the strong support from SKT. It is worth noting that smoke-free products robust growth still insignificantly impacts the overall performance, contributing only a small single digit to total sales.

* ASP adjustment tied with slightly better volume growth and flattish cost input will remain the key growth this year. We revisit our model and make some adjustments to TV growth and MRP, while keeping the valuation years range unchanged.

* Maintain BUY with DCF-based TP of IDR 960 (16.4x ‘26F P/E), currently trading at 12.5x ‘25F P/E, below -1 SD.

Regards,
Akhmad Nurcahyadi - KBVS Research team