Indonesia Macro Update - INF 02 Feb 2026

KBVS MACRO UPDATE
Monday, 2 February 2026

Continued Monthly Deflation in January

The decline in non-subsidized fuel prices, combined with improving distribution conditions—particularly in regions affected by the Nov and Dec '25 disasters— contributed to monthly deflation in Jan '26. Nevertheless, the lower base effect in Jan '25 pushed the annual headline CPI to its highest level in nearly three years.

Looking ahead, rising gold prices and a weakening rupiah are expected to exert upward pressure on inflation. However, improvements in distribution networks and stable staple food prices are anticipated to help contain further inflationary pressures in Feb '26.

 

Regards,
Fikri C Permana – KBVS Research Team

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