Indonesia Macro Update - INF 02 Sep 2024
KBVS MACRO UPDATE
Monday, 2 September 2024
Deflation Continues for Four Consecutive Months
As expected, monthly deflation occurred for the fourth consecutive time in Aug ‘24, with the monthly CPI inflation rate at -0.03% MoM or 2.12% YoY. The Volatile Foods group was the primary driver of deflation at -0.20% MoM. Meanwhile, the Administered Price group experienced inflation of 0.04% MoM, along with the Core Inflation group, which saw inflation of 0.13% MoM.
Looking ahead, ongoing harvests in several region coupled with the potential appreciation of the Rupiah, are expected to further drive deflation throughout Sep ‘24. However, concerns about the potential impact of La Niña, along with the dynamics surrounding the upcoming Regional Elections, could spur inflation. As a result, we anticipate a narrow fluctuation between inflation and deflation in Sep '24.
Regards,
KBVS Research Team