Indonesia Macro Update - Trade Balance 03 Feb 2026
KBVS MACRO UPDATE
Tuesday, 3 February 2026
Resilient Trade Surplus Amid Weak Transmission to FX Reserves and Domestic Liquidity
Indonesia extended its trade surplus streak to 68 consecutive months in Dec ‘25, recording a surplus of USD2.52 bn (Cons: USD2.53 bn; KBVS: USD3.36 bn; Prev: USD2.66 bn). By commodity group (HS 2-digit), the largest export contributor in 2025 was Animal/Vegetable Fats and Oils (HS15), which surged 27.94% YoY to USD34.36 bn, supported by a sharp 71.75% MoM increase in Dec ’25 to USD3.79 bn. On the import side, the largest annual increase came from Miscellaneous Chemical Products (HS38), which rose 38.17% YoY to USD5.19 bn (2024: USD3.76 bn).
Despite the stronger trade surplus performance, foreign exchange reserves remained relatively stable, rising marginally from USD155.72 bn at end-2024 to USD156.47 bn at end-2025. This indicates that the FX from Export Proceeds (DHE) repatriation policy has yet to be fully effective in encouraging onshore FX placement.
Looking ahead, we expect Indonesia’s trade surplus to remain intact, supported by the continued improvement in manufacturing activity. The Manufacturing PMI rose further to 52.6 (Prev: 51.2) in Jan ‘26, indicating sustained global competitiveness of Indonesian products, which should help support rupiah stability. However, seasonal demand related to Lunar New Year, Ramadan, and Eid may drive higher imports of refined oil products and consumer goods in the near term.
Regards,
KBVS Research Team